Turkey must not let Barzani and Talabani to have a clear field in Northern Iraq. 
from TDN Press Scanner, October 23, 2001
Those who miss the opportunity are going to regret it! 

Oct. 22, 2001
Sabah
by Sukru Elekdag (former Turkish ambassador to the United States) 

Ankara is seriously worried about the possibility that a military operation will be staged
against Iraq in the course of the process of waging war on terrorism in the wake of Sept. 11.
On CNN's Larry King Live program last week Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit stressed that if
that happened Iraq would be split up, and that this would create problems for Turkey's
independence and territorial integrity. 

Ecevit's remarks require that we ask the following questions and analyze the relevant issues: 

Is it definite that a Kurdish state will be founded in Northern Iraq if Saddam gets
overthrown?  How would Turkey be affected by the establishment of an independent
Kurdish state?  Is the United States supporting establishment of a Kurdish state?  What kind
of strategy should Turkey have? 

Iraq would be split up if Saddam is overthrown 

Ankara's view on the first question is quite clear. Ankara believes that Iraq's unity can be
preserved only with an authoritarian rule; and that if Saddam gets overthrown Iraq will be
split up. 

During the Ottoman era Iraq was governed as three separate provinces or states: The
Baghdad province was predominantly Sunni-Arab, Basra Shiite-Arab and Mosul
Kurdish and Turcoman. 
 
Ankara thinks that such a state would forge alliances with some of Turkey's neighbors as
well as with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to make territorial demands on
Turkey, adhering to the "Greater Kurdistan" cause and fueling Kurdish nationalism. 

These worries are not groundless, considering that in the aftermath of 1991
the U.S. policy has favored the establishment of a Kurdish state. 

Indeed, it was only with Washington's support that a parliamentary election could be held in
Northern Iraq in May 1992 and a Kurdish government could be formed. 

And the "Kurdistan Federated State" was proclaimed on Oct. 4, 1992 in the wake of the visit
[Northern Iraqi Kurdish leaders] Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani paid to the United
States. 

During the Gulf crisis, Turgut Ozal, the president at the time, maintained elbow contact with
U.S. President George Bush of how to split up Iraq. Ozal's "vision" was as follows: First a
Kurdish state would be established in Northern Iraq and then ensure that it joins Turkey as a
"Kurdish federated state." Thus, a "Turkish-Kurdish Federal State" would be created. 

Turkey's being plunged on such a dangerous path was prevented thanks to Gen. Necip
Torumtay to resigned as chief of staff when Ozal gave him instructions to "occupy" Iraq's
Mosul and Kirkuk regions. 

Kurdish state and US interests 

Yet, the "Iraqi Federated State" proved short-lived because the tribal system that prevails in
the region is hardly suitable for creation of a state. 

It is a fact that at a certain point the United States' Northern Iraq policy took a path
hazardous to Turkey, and that was due to a great extent to the erroneous reasoning of Ozal. 

Under the current international conditions, on the other hand, the United States should well
be aware that it would go against American interests if the United States conducted the kind
of policies that would result in the establishment of a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq. 

If the United States did create a landlocked Kurdish state surrounded by hostile countries on
all sides, a state which would be dependent on the United States in all aspects, Washington
would, whether it liked it or not, have to "index" its Middle East policy to the safeguarding
of that state. 

That would cause Iraq, Syria and Iran, countries who have a Kurdish minority of their own,
would be inclined to resolve the differences among them and to create a bloc against
America and Israel. 

In other words, the consequences of such a policy could undermine the U.S. interests in the
region. 

It is a very strong possibility that the moment they decide that the United States has --
relatively -- attained its goals in Afghanistan, the "hawks" in Washington will push for the
opening of a second front and succeed in initiating a military operation against Iraq. 

Turkey must be prepared for such developments. Turkey must not let Massoud Barzani and
Jalal Talabani to have a clear field in Northern Iraq. 

Otherwise, Turkey will not have a say in the restructuring of Iraq in the post-Saddam period.
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