June 24, 2001
Iraq poised to attack Kurds in ploy to avert tighter sanctions

The Daily Telegraph
By Jessica Berry

IRAQI troops are preparing for a strike inside Iraqi Kurdistan in an attempt to defeat British
and American plans to impose new sanctions, The Telegraph can reveal.

The new "smart sanctions" are designed to reduce smuggling by tightening inspections and
allowing non-military supplies to flow freely, thus denying President Saddam Hussein the
opportunity to claim his people are being starved by the West.

An Iraqi military expert said: "By invading Kurdistan, Saddam is going to try to goad
Britain and America into retaliating with air strikes. If they do, Russia and China, who both
oppose the reformed sanctions, would demand further reviews before any new sanctions plan
could be implemented. Any confrontation will also boost Saddam's popularity."

Iraq, which said last week it would fight the sanctions plan, has a hidden oil trade worth £2.2
billion a year on top of the £11 billion it earns officially. Military experts in Iraq said that the
build-up of troops is centred just south of the town of Arbil, in the western protected enclave
of northern Iraq and
subject to the no-fly zone.

The northern no-fly zone was set up in April 1991 in response to UN Resolution 688 to
protect the Kurds and to deter Iraqi attack. The Iraqi leader, they said, has sent tanks,
artillery and armoured vehicles to the northern region of Kirkuk in what was described as
"excessive military activity". A smaller number of troops and armoured units have been
moved to Haditha, on Iraq's western border with Jordan, and the Iraqi president has also
reopened the al-Baghdadi air base in the same area.

Evidence is mounting that Saddam is preparing for some kind of confrontation with the
Kurds. In the last week, he has moved ministries and security units to secret locations close
to schools and hospitals, making them problematic targets. The last time Iraq moved its
ministries was in December 1998, just before the Operation Desert Fox air strikes on
military targets.

Iraq invaded Arbil in August 1996 when it destroyed the opposition headquarters of the Iraqi
National Congress, killing hundreds of dissidents. Saddam, who has put Qusay, his son and
heir, in charge of security aspects of the current operation, has also brought in Field Marshal
Ayad Alrawi, a former commander of the Republican Guard, and Field Marshal Salah
Abood, both senior Ba'ath party members.

In recent television broadcasts, Saddam has called for a "final war" and has warned of
imminent attack from the West and a threat from Iran. Last week, he claimed that Allied war
planes fired at a playing field in the Kirkuk area, killing 23 people. America and Britain
denied the attack.

One Iraqi dissident in the area said it was most likely that an Iraqi missile had exploded
accidently. He said: "They are moving a lot of weapons around at the moment and I'm pretty
sure there was an accident." The Foreign Office said last night: "We are monitoring the
situation in Iraq very closely. We remain determined to protect the Kurds by enforcing the
northern no-fly zone. There is no weakening in our resolve to protect them."

The Ministry of Defence added: "We are aware of a troop concentration in the Arbil area
and are keeping a close eye on it. What Saddam's intentions are we do not know yet."