Iraqi Kurdistan at Crossroads in Relations with Turkey
Northern Iraq, on the edge of crossroads: 'either..or?'

Turkish Probe
October 7, 2001
by SAADET ORUC

Parallel to developments related with a possible U.S. operation to retaliate against the
September 11, terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, another issue is widely being
questioned in Turkey: Iraq and its future.

The chain of visits from northern Iraq to Ankara has paved the way for "brave"
brainstorming concerning that region.

Initially Hoshyar Zebari from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan (PUK)'s prime minister Barham Saleh and an independent figure of the region,
Hussain Sinjari were in Ankara and had long talks with Turkish officials.

The point raised by the Iraqi Kurds was clear, "As many things in the world, balances in
northern Iraq were shifting and Turkey's help was asked for the interests of Iraqi Kurds."

Some visitors from the Kurdish-controlled areas of Iraq spoke more openly while some
spoke with caution.

But at the end, the on-the-record evaluation of the situation by the Kurds with their
interpretation from the Foreign Affairs Ministry and their demands are as follows:

Any possible strike on Iraq will result with a regime change, (which meant they would prefer
so).

A possible power vacuum in Iraq will confirm that the Iraqi Kurdish administration is the
sole authority in the region, (Our dependency on Baghdad, which is already at a minimum
level, will be less)

If Turkey recognizes Kurdish rights in northern Iraq, it can win the hearts of the locals there.
In order not to leave control of the region to Iran, it should take control of northern Iraq.
(Iraqi Kurds are aware of the fact that excluding Turkey, no equation can be successful in
northern Iraq. Also the United States will not please the Kurds.

While representatives from KDP and PUK stopped in Ankara on their way to the United
States and informed Turkish officials about the current threat posed by fundamentalist
factions in northern Iraq, Sinjari more openly was raising the joint demand of the two Iraqi
Kurdish parties: "Come here, it is the time for either...or!"

At that point Turkish intelligence was questioning the accuracy of the claims from Iraqi
Kurds on possible links between the Jund-ul Islam group, which reportedly was linked with
terrorist activities in northern Iraq, and Osama Bin Laden.

"Did they realize the existence of the Bin Laden linkage in northern Iraq soon after
September 11?," asked the official just one day before Barham Saleh from PUK presented
documents confirming Bin Laden links in northern Iraq.

Regarding demands of Iraqi Kurds from Turkey for taking control of northern Iraq, a senior
Turkish official was "reminding" that Turkey has already been there, in terms of the business
links in that region.

But, the claims and demands of the Iraqi Kurds, again, were being taken cautiously.

Turkish officials continued to put emphasis on Turkey's respect for the territorial integrity
and political unity of Iraq.

U.N. Sec. Council Resolution 1286 to be functioned

It was clear that any U.S. attack on Iraq without a reason would create a big crack in the
international front, which was formed for fighting terrorism.

A former formula was seen to be revitalized for Iraq.

A United Nations Security Council Resolution was being functioned again and due to
U.N.S.C.R. No. 1286, which is about the control of arms in Iraq, started to be talked about
again.

Another important point was that the smart sanctions issue would be brought to the agenda
of the United Nations.

Taking the facts of the new international environment into consideration, it was being
calculated behind closed doors in the United States that Russia, which prevented the
approval of the draft on smart sanctions in the U.N., would have less reason to continue its
former stance.

It was evaluated to be easier to make the international community approve the new smart
sanctions policy on Iraq.

Operations in Afghanistan is almost certain to take place soon and last for quite a while...

But it is clear that another operation, most phases of which will take place on the diplomatic
front, is seen to be likely for Iraq.

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