USA tries to untangle itself from Iraq

From a Dec. 4 article by Sabah's Mehmet Ali Birand: A recent visit to Washington has given me the impression that the United States is getting prepared to "withdraw" from Iraq. Almost everybody says the Clinton administration's double containment policy of pushing both Iran and Iraq into isolation by maintaining a trade embargo, has become a fiasco. All plans for northern Iraq have failed. The Iranian policy is not working. The plan to crush Saddam Hussein has failed. A new approach is being sought. No one seems to know yet what kind of approach this will be. A State Department official says the Clinton administration will make a decision.

There are signs indicating that Washington has already started a gradual withdrawal from northern Iraq. This can be seen from the developments involving the nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) operating in northern Iraq. These humanitarian organizations had settled in all Kurdish villages, providing aid and technical knowledge on how to construct sewage and irrigation systems, how to improve agriculture and how to operate an administrative system. They were giving the locals all the information they would need to survive on their own. These organizations had become influential mainly becausemillions of dollars in aid allocated by the U.S. administration for the restructuring of northern Iraq, was being distributed to the Kurds via these NGOs. Armed with money and technology, the NGOs had their finger on the pulse of the local population, dominating the region almost totally.

This picture upset Ankara, which saw the NGOs as a "secret separatist force." Instead of providing such services for northern Iraq itself, Ankara took the easy way out and adopted a stance against the NGOs, restricting border crossings and putting pressure on Washington. In the end it got what it wanted. When Massoud Barzani, leader of one of the two major Iraqi Kurdish groups, moved against his rival, Jalal Talabani, with the support of Saddam Hussein, the NGOs became afraid. Just at that point Washington announced that aid to the region would from then on be distributed via the United Nations rather than the NGOs. Thousands of Kurds working for the NGOs began to flee and the United States announced that it would accept them. This fuelled the fears. By now most of the NGOs have left northern Iraq.

It seems that the United States has given up on the region and is now looking for a face-saving formula enabling it to withdraw from the area.

No secret agreement between Ankara and Baghdad

In Washington it is being rumored that Ankara has reached a secret agreement with Iraq's Saddam Hussein. The "secret agreement" which Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan is said to have concluded during Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz's visit to Ankara a few weeks ago, would enable Saddam Hussein to regain control of northern Iraq. In return, Turkey would be permitted to launch across-border operations in hot pursuit of outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants.

Officials informed about the Tariq Aziz-Erbakan meeting rule out such an agreement. They are right. There is no such agreement. On the other hand, Saddam Hussein will indeed be increasingly bolstering his position. The reopening of the oil pipeline linking Iraq and Turkey will be a milestone. With the sale of $2 billion worth of oil, a sum which will later climb to $4 billion, Saddam Hussein will become stronger.

The moment it figures out a dignified exit, the United States will pack its bags and leave. This may take a few years, maybe five years. But eventually it will leave. The process of departing from Iraq has already begun.

Turkey should be thinking what would happen after the United States leaves. This should be the focus of Turkey's concern. Turkey may be faced with a lot of trouble once this occurs.